房价与我国居民人均可支配收入关系的实证分析

Study on the Relationship between Housing Price and Per Capital Disposable Income of China

为探究我国商品房销售价格与城镇人均可支配收入的互相影响关系,以2002年第一季度至2017年第四季度全国(港澳台除外)商品房销售价格与城镇人均可支配收入的季度数据为样本,利用向量自回归模型等方法来对其进行实证研究。结果表明:商品房销售价格与城镇人均可支配收入之间存在双向的正向影响,商品房销售价格的变化会明显使得城镇居民人均可支配收入产生变化,而城镇人均可支配收入的提升也会导致商品房价格出现一定程度的上升。

The quarterly data of housing prices and per capita disposable income of cities and towns during the period of 2002~2017 is used to build a Vector Autoregressive（VAR） model for empirical analysis. Co-integration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition analysis are applied to study their mutual influence on time lag, effect strength and duration. The result shows that the commercial housing price and per capita disposable income of urban residents have positive effects on each other. The change in the commercial housing price will obviously lead to changes in the per capita disposable income of urban residents and the increase in per capita disposable income of urban residents will also cause the rise in the commercial housing prices to a certain extent.