汇率是影响中美贸易的决定因素吗?——基于VAR模型的经验研究

Is Exchange Rate Playing a Decisive Role in Sino-US Trade?——An Empirical Study Based on VAR Model

汇率是影响中美贸易的决定因素吗?考虑到其他贸易伙伴国对中美贸易量的影响,选取了影响中美贸易的多项月度指标变量,基于VAR模型利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法进行经验研究。结果表明,汇率因素在短期内可能会引起中美贸易的波动,但就长期而言,其影响小于其他因素,并逐渐衰减。综合看来,汇率并不是影响中美贸易的决定因素,中美两国的经济增长、贸易结构性问题等因素是造成中美贸易长期不平衡的主要原因。

Is exchange rate playing a decisive role in Sino-US trade？ Taking other trade partners＇ influence on Sino-US trade volume into account, the paper selected enough variables to establish a VAR model and use impulse-response functions, forecast-error variance decomposition methods to check the exchange rate influence to trade balance between China and the U.S. The results showed, in the short-run, the exchange rate can cause the fluctuations of trade balance between China and the U.S., but in the long-run, its influence is smaller than other variables and decaying over time. In general, the exchange rate is not the decisive in influencing the trade balance between China and the U.S. The growth of the economy and the trade structure between China and the U.S. are the main factors to cause the long-run trade imbalance.