三种城镇化类型对农业保险发展影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Three Urbanization Types' Impact on Agricultural Insurance Development

为探究城镇化对农业保险发展的影响,基于我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)2007—2015年的面板数据,通过构建动态差分GMM模型实证分析了产业城镇化、人口城镇化、空间城镇化对农业保险发展的影响效应,研究结果表明:农业保险发展存在惯性影响;产业城镇化水平对农业保险发展具有显著的正向影响,人口城镇化水平显著抑制农业保险发展,空间城镇化水平显著促进农业保险发展;另外,人均农作物播种面积、农民文化状况显著正向影响农业保险发展,而农业生产风险水平、农业生产现代化水平则是显著负向影响农业保险发展。最后,依据三种城镇化类型分别提出了相对应的对策建议以推动农业保险的发展。

To explore urbanization＇s impact on the development of agricultural insurance, the paper adopts panel data from 2007 to 2015 in 31 provinces（autonomous regions and municipalities） in China, and constructs Dynamic Differential GMM Model to analyzeimpact of industrial urbanization, population urbanization, spatial urbanization on agricultural insurance development.The result is as follows： There is inertial influence on the development of agricultural insurance. The level of industrialization of urbanization significantly and positively affects the development of agricultural insurance, the level of population urbanization significantly inhibits the development of agricultural insurance, and the level of spatial urbanization significantly promotes the development of agricultural insurance. In addition, the sown area of per capita agricultural crops and farmers＇ cultural status significantly and positively affected the development of agricultural insurance, the level of agricultural production risk and the level of modernization of agricultural production had a significant negative impact on the development of agricultural insurance. Finally, in order to promote the development of agricultural insurance, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed according to the three types of urbanization.