基于HBV的黑河流域径流对气候变化的响应

Response of runoff to climate change in Heihe River Basin based on HBV model

黑河流域是我国西北干旱区内陆河研究的代表性流域,研究未来气候变化对黑河流域山区径流的定量影响,对干旱区水资源规划设计、开发利用和保护管理具有重要意义。采用HBV-light模型,首先根据实测径流数据验证了该模型在黑河流域上游的适用性,然后拟定25种气候变化情景模式,模拟气温与降水变化对径流的定量影响。结果表明:(1)当气温保持不变时,降水增加会造成年径流增加;而当降水维持不变时,气温升高将导致年径流减少。(2)关于径流年内分布,气温变化与6~9月份的径流呈负相关关系,而与4月份的径流呈显著正相关关系;降水变化与径流呈明显的正相关关系;年径流与年内分配均表现为对于降水变化的敏感性高于气温变化。(3)未来气候变化有助于缓解黑河流域水资源短缺的现状。

The Heihe River Basin is a representative basin for the study of inland rivers in arid areas of northwest China,thus,study on the quantitative effects of climate change on runoff in the mountainous area of Heihe River basin has important significance for planning and design,development and utilization,protection and management of water resources in arid area. The applicability of the HBV-light model in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin was verified according to the measured runoff data and then 25 climate change scenarios were designed to simulate the quantitative effect of temperature and precipitation change on runoff. The results showed that when the temperature remains constant,the increase of precipitation would cause the increase of annual runoff; while the precipitation remains unchanged,the temperature rise would lead to annual runoff reduction.In the view of annual runoff distribution,it showed a negative effect of temperature change on runoff in June to September,but a significant positive effect in April. Precipitation shows obvious positive impact on runoff. The annual runoff and annual distribution all showed higher sensitivity to the variation of precipitation than that of the temperature changes. The future climate change would help to alleviate the shortage of water resources in the Heihe River Basin.