济南市长清区暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划

Risk Zoning of Rainstorm and Flood Disaster in Changqing District of Ji'nan City

基于自然灾害形成机理及风险评估原理,利用济南市长清区气象数据、自然地理和社会经济等数据,建立起致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力4个评价指标,采用加权综合评价法和层次分析法,借助GIS空间分析技术,对暴雨灾害风险性进行评价和等级划分,并绘制出长清地区暴雨灾害综合风险区划图。结果显示:长清区暴雨灾害综合风险性分布空间性强,无明显的地域分布界限,东部高于其它地区。暴雨灾害高综合风险区分布面积较为分散且最小,占全区总面积的14.60%;中综合风险区主要分布在高综合风险区的外围,占全区总面积的30.31%;轻、低综合风险区分别占全区总面积的20.72%和34.37%。

Based on the mechanism of natural disaster formation and the principle of risk assessment,this paper makes use of the meteorological data,natural geography and social economy in Changqing District of Ji＇nan,and establishes four evaluation indexes for the risk of disaster factors（i.e. the sensitivity of the environment of pregnancy,the vulnerability of the disaster bearing bodies and the ability to prevent and reduce the disaster）. Using the weighted comprehensive evaluation method and the analytic hierarchy process（AHP） and GIS spatial analysis technology,the risk of rainstorm disaster is evaluated and graded,and the comprehensive risk zoning map of the rainstorm disaster in Changqing area is drawn. The comprehensive risk distribution of rainstorm in Changqing area shows little relation to geographical distribution boundaries. and the intensity of disaster risk in the east is higher than other regions. The distribution area of the high comprehensive risk area of the rainstorm disaster is more scattered and accounts for 14.60% of the total area. The middle comprehensive risk area is mainly distributed in the periphery of the high comprehensive risk area,accounting for 30.31% of the whole area. And the light and low comprehensive risk areas account for 20.72% and 34.37% o of the whole region,respectively.