转移支付与县级财政支出扩张——基于“双向”粘蝇纸效应的分析

Intergovernmental Grants and County-level Expenditure Expansion:Based on the Analysis of the Two-way Flypaper Effect

笔者基于1994—2009年间县级非平衡面板数据研究了地方财政支出对转移支付变动的"非对称性"反应。通过分析转移支付对财政支出、收入及不同支出项目是否具有"双向"且对称的粘蝇纸效应,得出转移支付引发财政支出扩张的机理。实证结论表明,县级财政支出对无条件转移支付和税收返还的变动呈现"双向"变动但不对称,其中,无条件转移支付的增减都会引发财政支出不断扩张,但税收返还的减少有助于缩小财政支出规模;一次性总额拨款和专项转移支付对地方财政支出扩张没有刺激作用;县级地区面临转移支付收入波动时会通过调整支出结构的方式满足特定支出需求。

Using the unbalanced panel data of county-level expenditure from the year of 1994 to 2009,this paper analysis how local expenditures respond asymmetrically to changes in intergovernmental grants. By analyzing whether intergovernmental grants have the two-way and symmetrical flypaper effect to fiscal expenditure,revenue and expenditure projects or not,the mechanism of how intergovernmental grants cause expansion of fiscal expenditure is studied. The empirical results indicate that,county-level expenditure has the two-way and asymmetry effect on changes of the unconditional grants and the tax refunds. Whether unconditional transfer increased or decreased,county-level expenditure will be expand. But the drop of tax refunds will help to narrow the fiscal expenditure scale; block grants and specific-purpose grants have no stimulating effect on county-level expenditure while grants volatilities. Counties would adjust expenditure structure to meet specific expenditure demands. Finally,this paper gives relevant policy suggestions.