时间偏好的区际差异:分布特征与影响因素

Interregional Difference of Time Preference:Distribution Characteristics and Influence Factors

时间偏好在诸多经济问题上起着基础性作用,由众多行为个体所组成的社会整体时间偏好对资源合理配置及可持续发展具有重要意义。现有研究主要集中在我国整体社会贴现率取值的确定上,对社会贴现率影响因素的实证探讨及社会贴现率的区际差异分析亟需完善。数据表现与影响因素入手的区际差异分析为我国分地区采用差别社会贴现率提供了理论依据及数值参考,并为针对性调控我国社会贴现率提供了新的思路。研究结果显示:我国东、中、西部区域社会贴现率数值各异,且资本社会机会成本(SOC)、加权社会贴现率(SRTP-SOC)存在地域递减的分布特征;收入增长率、死亡率、消费边际效用弹性、消费增长率及市场利率均会对我国社会贴现率产生影响,且西部地区社会贴现率对居民消费特征及资本市场的变化反应更为敏感,东部地区社会贴现率长期均衡水平不受居民收入增长率及市场利率的影响。

Time preference plays a fundamental role in many economic theories and social time preference which is composed of all the individuals＇ willing is of great significance for the rational allocation of resources and sustainable development. The existing domestic researches mainly focus on the determination of social discount rate nationally,and the empirical study on influence factors and interregional difference analysis need to be refined. The interregional difference analysis of numerical value and influence factors provide theory basis for the adoption of discriminating social discount rate regionally and data references for the determination of social discount rate; besides,it comes up with a new train of thought to control social discount rate pointedly.The results show that the numerical value of social discount rate in eastern,central and western regions are different,and the average level of SOC and SRTP-SOC in eastern regions are the highest,both of which are the lowest in western regions though. In addition,all factors of revenue growth,mortality,marginal utility elasticity,consumption increase rate and market interest have effects on social discount rate. In comparison,social discount rate in western regions is more sensitive to the fluctuation of consumption and changes in capital markets and the equilibrium level of social discount rate in eastern regions has nothing to do with income and market interest in the long term.