政府干预、总需求结构失衡与中国经济波动

Government Intervention,the Imbalance of Aggregate Demand Structure and Chinese Economic Fluctuations

本文将金融加速器机制和政府干预因素嵌入到基本的真实经济周期模型中,以此研究政府干预和利率管制通过影响企业投资引发并加剧总需求结构失衡的具体机制,以及总需求结构渠道在传导外生冲击并最终引起经济波动所发挥的作用。研究发现,政府干预和利率管制均会导致总需求结构失衡。其中,政府干预通过降低企业要素价格敏感性并增强企业的产出规模动机引发投资冲动,导致用于消费的产出份额被挤占;利率管制则压低了存贷利率,导致家庭储蓄收益和消费水平下降并刺激企业扩大投资。总需求结构渠道对外生冲击的放大效应是通过增强投资对产出波动的影响来发挥作用的,数值模拟结果表明:(1)总需求结构失衡越严重,金融加速器对外生冲击的放大效应越显著;(2)推进利率市场化和降低政府干预需要同步进行才能有效扭转总需求结构失衡。由此,改善的需求结构才能有效降低外生冲击对经济的影响,增强宏观经济稳定性。

In order to study how the government intervention and interest rate control lead to the imbalance in aggregate demand structure by the investment channel,and to explore the effects of shock＇s demand structure transmission mechanism on economic fluctuations,we embed the financial accelerator mechanism and government intervetion factors into a basic real bussiness cycle model. The results imply that two mechanisms lead to and intensify the imbalance of aggregate demand structure： the government intervention arouses the enthusiasm for investment by decreasing sensitivity of factor price and increasing the motivation of production scale,and squeezes out consumption. However,the interest rate control reduces returns on household savings and consumption,and decreases capital marginal cost which leads the firm to expand investment. The aggregate demand structure channel has effects on amplifying the exogenous shock by increasing the influence of investment on output. Using numerical simulation,we found that： firstly,the financial accelerator effect strengthens as the extent of imbalance in aggregate demand structure exacerbates; secondly,only promting interest rate liberazation and reducing the government intervention simultaneously can be conducive to rebalancing of aggregate demand structure. Therefore improved aggregate demand structure can reduce the influences of exogenous shocks on economy,thus enhances the stability of macro-economy.