基于最大熵模型的枸杞生态适宜区预测

Ecological Suitable Prediction of Lycium barbarum L.Based on Maximum Entropy Model

根据环境因子和宁夏枸杞在中国的地理分布记录,对宁夏枸杞的生态适宜性区划及其生态特征进行研究.通过检索全球生物多样性信息网、中国数字植物标本馆、产地报道及查阅相关文献等方式收集全国1 241个宁夏枸杞分布点,利用最大信息熵模型(MaxEnt)和GIS技术对宁夏枸杞进行适宜性区划预测和分析.MaxEnt预测结果表明,宁夏枸杞在中国可能的生态适宜区分布在内蒙古自治区、新疆维吾尔自治区、甘肃、山西、河北、陕西、宁夏回族自治区等.影响宁夏枸杞分布的主要生态因素为年均温度、最冷季均温、最热季均温和年均降水量.基于相似性区域分析,根据枸杞生长的限制条件确定适宜产地.

According to the environmental factors and the distribution of Lycium barbarum L.records in China,the ecological suitability regionalization and ecological characteristics of Lycium barbarum L.are studied to provide references for the artificial cultivation and regional development of Lycium barbarum L..By retrieving global biodiversity information network,Chinese digital Herbarium,origin reports and related literature,1 241 distribution sites of Lycium barbarum L.are collected.By using the maximum entropy model（MaxEnt）and GIS technology,the suitability regionalization of Lycium barbarum L.is predicted and analyzed.MaxEnt prediction results show that the possible ecological suitable distribution of Lycium barbarum L.in China are Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Gansu,Shanxi,Hebei,Shaanxi,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and other provinces.Main ecological factors influencing the distribution of the Lycium barbarum L.are the annual average temperature,the coldest season mean temperature,the hottest season average temperature and annual precipitation.According to the similarity regional analysis and the limited conditions of the growth of wolfberry,the suitable producing area in the world can be determined,which plays a key role in guiding the selection of wolfberry areas,planning the production layout,and improving the quality of Lycium barbarum L..