粮食产量影响因素的实证分析——以山东省为例

Empirical Analysis on Influence Factors of the Grain Production in Shandong Province

对山东省粮食产量的影响因素进行了整体性和阶段性实证分析,结果发现:1978—2012年,粮食种植面积对粮食总产量的波动影响最大,其次为化肥施用总量,农业机械总动力的影响较小。在不同阶段,对粮食总产量产生影响的三大物质投入因素所发挥的作用有所不同。粮食种植面积在各个阶段对粮食总产量的影响均为最大,但化肥施用总量和农业机械总动力在不同阶段对粮食总产量的影响所发挥的作用则有不同。1978—1987年,农业机械总动力的持续大量投入使粮食总产量大幅度增加;1988—2002年,化肥的施用量逐年大幅增加促进粮食总产量持续增加;2003—2012年农业机械总动力和化肥施用总量对粮食总产量的增加均有较大贡献。

This paper has made a complrehensive and staged empirical analysis of the influencing factors of grain output. The tresults show that the atrea of grain planting has the greatest impact on the fluctuation of total food production, followed by the total amount of chemical fertilizer application, and the impact of the total power of agricultural machinery is trelatively small. The thtree major factors affecting grain production play different roles at different stages. At each stage, grain growing atrea contributes to grain production significantly, but the effects of the total amount of fertilizer applied and the total power of the agricultural machinery on the total grain yield are different. From 1978 to 1987, agricultural machinery power was the main factor to increase grain production rapidly. From 1988 to 2002, the continuing large number of inputs of fertilizer was the key factor to raise grain production. From 2003 to 2012 ,fertilizer and agricultural machinery power have been two main factors to increase grain production.