中国农户生猪散养动态演化规律分析

Dynamic Evolution Law of Peasant Household's Backyard Pig Production in China

农户大量退出生猪散养已成为中国养殖业转型升级过程中的一个突出现象。农户畜禽散养与经济增长之间的倒"U"型关系是发展中国家的普遍规律。在此规律作用下,中国农户生猪散养经历了3个演化阶段。当前农户大量退出生猪散养是经济发展的必然结果,其对中国猪肉供求平衡和生猪生产方式转变提出了新的挑战和机遇。基于研究结论,对保障生猪供需平衡和生猪产业现代化提出了相关建议,并予以了展望。

A large number of peasant households withdrawing from backyard pig production has become a prominent phenomenon in the process of transformation and upgrading of China＇s breeding industry. The inverted ＂U＂ relationship between peasant household＇s backyard livestock breeding and economic growth is a general rule in developing countries. Under this rule, peasant household＇s backyard pig production has undergone three evolutionary stages in China. At present, the large number of peasant households withdrawing from backyard pig production is the inevitable result of economic development, which puts forward new challenges and opportunities for the balance of the supply and demand of pork and the transformation of pig production mode in China. Based on the research findings, the authors put forward some suggestions for ensuring the balance between supply and demand of pig and the modernization of pig industry, and gave a prospect.