电子商务发展对出口贸易规模扩张的U型调节——来自中国的经验实证

The “U”-type Regulation Role of E-commerce Development in Expanding the Scale of Export Trade——An Empirical Study on China

本文将电子商务发展速度、电子商务发展程度与出口贸易规模整合在同一框架下,采用2008~2014年中国省级面板数据,藉由电子商务发展程度与出口贸易规模的关系,探究电子商务发展速度对二者关系的调节作用。研究结果发现,电子商务发展程度对出口贸易规模具有正向溢出效应,电子商务发展速度对该正向关系具有U型调节作用。电子商务发展速度较慢时,电子商务发展速度上升会抑制电子商务发展程度对出口贸易规模的正向作用;电子商务发展速度突破U型调节临界点且速度进一步加快时,则释放电子商务发展程度对出口贸易规模的正向溢出效应。本文诠释电子商务发展与出口贸易规模的动态关系,为合理制定电子商务发展政策以助力出口贸易规模扩大提供重要参考。

The paper integrates the speed and the degree of E-commerce development and the scale of export trade,and then,with the use of Chinese provincial panel data from 2008 to 2014,studies the relationship between the degree of E-commerce and the scale of export trade to examine the role that the speed of E-commerce development plays in regulating the relationship of E-commerce development and the scale of export trade. The main findings are as follows： The degree of E-commerce development has a positive spillover effect on the scale of export trade,and the speed of E-commerce development has a＂U＂-type regulation effect on this relationship. When E-commerce development is relatively slow,the speed of E-commerce development will inhibit the positive effect that the degree of E-commerce development degree has on the scale of export trade;when the speed of E-commerce development reaches the critical point of＂U＂-type regulation,a further accelerated speed of E-commerce development will promote the positive spillover effect that the degree of E-commerce development has on the scale of export trade. This paper explains the dynamic relationship between E-commerce development and the scale of export trade,and provides important references for expanding the scale of export trade by formulating reasonable policies for E-commerce development.