基于博弈理论的城市轨道PPP项目风险分担研究

Research on Risk Sharing of Urban Rail PPP Project Based on Game Theory

城市轨道交通具有大容量、高速、环保的特点,已成为解决城市交通问题的首选,高额的投资和运营资金是限制其发展的瓶颈。PPP模式通过对社会资金的引入,极大地解决了资金问题,所以城市轨道交通建设愈来愈倾向于采用PPP模式,但城市轨道交通PPP项目中涉及方面广、项目风险多,城市轨道交通PPP项目参与方争论的关键点就是如何合理分担风险。本文介绍了博弈相关理论,并对风险分担一般流程和结果进行论述,对项目需要共担的风险建立博弈模型以实现风险分担,最终确定PPP项目相关参与方的风险分担的比例。

The urban rail transit has become the first choice to solve the problem of urban traffic because of its characteristics of large capacity,high speed and environmental protection.But high investment and operating capital are the bottleneck that limits its development.The PPP model greatly solves the financial problem through the introduction of social funds.Therefore the urban rail transit construction is more and more inclined to adopt PPP mode.However,there are many related aspects and high project risk in the urban rail transit PPP project.The key argument in the urban rail transit PPP project is how to share the risk reasonably.This paper introduces the game theory,and the general process of risk sharing and the results discussion.The project risk sharing game model is built to achieve risk sharing,and ultimately determine the proportion of risk sharing among related parties in the PPP project.