十八大后土地经济形势分析与后期趋势展望

Analysis of Land Economic Situation after The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the Outlook of Late Trend

文章围绕建设用地需求量及结构变化、土地利用效率和经济产出、土地招拍挂市场运行情况、土地出让收入和抵押融资、土地违法、房地产市场形势等六个方面,对2012年以来的土地经济管理形势进行了全面分析,对今后一个时期的土地和房地产市场发展趋势进行了展望。总体而言,2018年及今后一段时间内,土地供应会进一步趋紧,房地产市场将以建设长效机制为主要内容,房价既不会大跌也不会大涨,土地价格同样如此,但需警惕黑天鹅事件。

This paper is analysed the land economy management situation since 2012, focusing on the issues of following： the demand for and structural change of construction land, land use efficiency and economic output, land bidding auctions market operation, land transfer income and mortgage financing, land violations, real estate market situation. On this basis, it also prospects the land and real estate market development trend for the future period. This paper is argued that in 2018, or in the next few years, land supply will be tightened furtherly. Building a long-term mechanism must be the focus of our efforts in the real estate market. At the same time, housing prices won＇t go down or up; and the same is true of the land price; but we are on alert for ＂black swan event＂.