农业生态治理能否改善农业增长中的资源尾效——一个中国农业内生增长模型

Can Agricultural Ecological Management Cut the Tail of Ecological Growth Drag?——A Chinese Agriculture Endogenous Growth Model

通过理论模型推导与中国农业生产的实证检验,在新古典增长模型的基础上,构建了一个同时包含水土资源的数量外生约束与质量内生约束的中国农业内生增长模型,通过理论推导论证农业生态治理能够改善资源尾效,提高农业长期均衡产出增长水平。随后使用1994—2014年中国种植业的生产数据采取3SLS进行估计并通过稳健性检验,结果显示耕地与水资源质量提升1%,农业产出增长速度分别至少提升0.38%与0.12%,耕地与水资源的增长尾效改善0.595%与0.346%,而最低提高的长期增长水平可得收益为生态治理投入成本的3倍以上。

Based on the neo-classical growth model in macroeconomics,we built a Chinese Agriculture Endogenous Growth Model incorporating the restrictions of quantity and quality of land and water. By the theoretical analysis we found the ecological management could cut part of the tail of ecological growth drag in Chinese agriculture and increase long-term equilibrium level of Chinese agricultural output growth.Based on the Chinese crops production data from 1994-2014,we used 3 SLS structural estimation to testify that,with the input of ecological management on water and land increased 1% separately,the total agricultural crops output would increase at least 0. 12% and 0. 38% respectively,and cut the growth drag tail as 0. 595% and 0. 346% respectively. Meanwhile, the least increasing growth rate from the improving of long-term equilibrium level of Chinese agricultural output growth is more than three times the cost of ecological management input.