中国超越能效的发展轨迹——到2050年最大限度实现电气化和使用可再生资源对CO_2减排的影响

China's Trajectories beyond Efficiency: CO_2 Implications of Maximizing Electrification and Renewable Resources through 2050

为了支持《巴黎协定》将全球平均气温增幅限制在1.5℃以内,在能效继续发挥主要作用的同时,中国需要采取除能效以外的其他重大行动。本研究采用自下而上的全国终端用能模型和情景分析来评估中国在不同技术选项下潜在的二氧化碳减排量。这些技术选项包括电力部门迅速脱碳、各部门最大限度地实现电气化、工业部门最大限度地利用生物质能和低温可再生热能以及建筑部门最大限度地利用太阳能采暖、制冷和水暖技术。研究结果表明,最大限度地利用非常规电力和可再生能源技术可以使中国提前至2023年达到二氧化碳排放峰值,并且在2050年前能进一步大幅减少二氧化碳排放量。除能效技术之外,最大的额外二氧化碳减排潜力来自于工业部门的化石燃料被可再生热能所替代。上述结果表明,加快非常规电力和可再生能源技术的利用,可以为中国带来额外的二氧化碳减排机遇,但仍需新的政策和策略来改变需求部门对技术的选择。

In support of the Paris Agreement, energy efficiency in China will continue to play a major role, but other significant actions beyond efficiency are needed to help to limit the average global temperature increase to 1.5℃. This study uses a bottom-up national end-use model and scenario analysis to evaluate the potential CO_2 reductions if China is able to rapidly decarbonize its power sector while maximizing electrification across all sectors and the additional opportunity from maximizing biomass and low temperature renewable heat use in industry and solar heating, cooling and water heating technologies use in buildings. We find that maximizing non-conventional electric and renewable technologies can help China peak its national CO_2 emissions as early as 2023, with significant additional CO_2 emission reductions through 2050. The greatest additional CO_2 reduction potential beyond efficiency lies in fossil fuel displaced by renewable heat in industry. These results suggest accelerating the utilization of non-conventional electric and renewable technologies present additional CO_2 reduction opportunities for China, but new policies and strategies are needed to change technology choice in the demand sectors.