基于环境因子的日本鲭太平洋群系的亲体—补充量模型比较分析

Comparative analysis of stock-recruitment model for Scomber japonicus in the Pacific based on environment factors

日本鲭(Scomber japonicus)是有重要经济价值的中上层鱼类,研究其资源变动与海洋环境因子之间的关系有利于该资源的合理开发与利用。根据1982-2014年日本鲭在129°~160°E、28°~45°N海域的生产统计数据,结合海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)和太平洋十年涛动(Pacific decadal oscillation,PDO)数据,首先对补充量(recruitment,R)与SST、PDO进行交相关分析,之后用Ricker模型拟合SST、PDO对日本鲭亲体-补充量的影响,并用Akaike信息法则(Akaike information criterion,AIC)对不同模型进行了比较。结果表明:SST、PDO对补充量均有滞后影响,滞后期分别是5年和1年;亲体-补充量模型分析表明,Ricker模型的AIC值为81.979,加入环境因子后AIC值明显降低。同时加入SST和PDO的模型AIC值是71.743,优于单个环境因子模型。结果表明,加入SST、PDO两种环境因子的Ricker模型能更好的描述亲体-补充量关系。

Scomber japonicus is an economically important pelagic fish. It is necessary for us to study the relationship between the change of marine environmental factors and fishery resources,which is beneficial to rational utilization of the resources. Based on the catch statistics of Pacific chub mackerel from 1982-2014（ 129°-160°E,28°-45°N） and environmental data of Sea Surface Temperature（ SST） and Pacific Decadal Oscillation（ PDO）,the relationships between Recruitment（ R） and SST,PDO were analyzed using cross correlation analysis. The Ricker model was used to evaluate the different effects of environmental factors on the stock-recruitment relationship and the Akaike information criterion（ AIC） was used to compare the advantages of different models. The results indicated that SST and PDO had a lag impact on recruitment,and the lag was 5 years and 1 year respectively. The AIC of Ricker model was 81. 979,and decreased after taking the environmental factors into the model. The AIC was 71. 743 when SST and PDO were both taken into the Ricker model, suggesting that it was the best model to describe the relationships between stock and recruitment.