基于KMV模型的福建省地方政府性债务风险评估

Fujian Provincial Local Government Debt Risk Assessment Based on KMV Model

地方政府债务风险对地方政府的可持续发展有着重要的影响。通过结合2014年公布的福建省政府性债务审计结果,对福建省地方政府债务及其风险现状进行分析,利用VAR模型来预测2018年的地方财政收入,再用改进的KMV模型来分析福建省2018年地方政府债务的预期违约距离和预期违约率。虽然实证结果显示福建省地方政府性债务的风险总体可控,但仍要注意对潜在风险的防范。

The debt risk of local government plays an important role in the sustainable development of local government. Based on the results of the government debt audit announced in 2014 in Fujian Province,this paper analyzes the current situation of the local government debt and its risks in Fujian Province. The VAR model is used to predict the local fiscal revenue in 2018,and the improved KMV model is used to analyze the expected default distance and expected default rate of local government debt in Fujian Province in 2018. Although the empirical results show that the overall risk of local government debt in Fujian Province is manageable,we must pay attention to the prevention of potential risks.