我国各省人口老龄化与经济发展协调性定量研究

Quantitative research on the coordination of aging of population and economic development in China's provinces

在已有AECI指数法的基础上构建优化的人口老龄化与经济发展协调指数法(简称OAECI),并采用OAECI法实证分析2000—2015年我国各省人口老龄化与经济发展协调性的时空变化规律。结果表明:我国各省协调性具有空间非均衡现象和聚集现象,西部地区的协调指数较小,中部地区的协调指数较大;空间聚集现象呈现扩散的趋势,老龄化低负荷型聚集区从开始的西部地区逐渐往东部地区扩散,而高负荷型省份向我国经济欠发达地区聚集;我国各省协调性同时具有波动大、变化快的特点,北京、上海等大部分省份都有较大波动;在协调性波动大的年份或省份中,其协调指数相对较小。

The quantitative research on the coordination of aging of population and economic development in China is conducive to the formulation of China＇s population policy and economic policy. First,the OAECI method is constructed based on the AECI method. Second,the OAECI method is used to analyze the spatial and temporal variation ofaging of population and economic development coordination in China in 2000—2015. The results show that： the coordination of provinces in China has spatial non-equilibrium phenomena and agglomeration phenomena; the phenomenon of spatial agglomeration presents a trend of diffusion,and the low type is gradually spreading to the coastal areas from the beginning of the western and northern regions; and the coordination has the characteristics of large fluctuations and rapid changes,and mostprovinces have large fluctuations,such as Beijing,Shanghai,etc.. It is also found that the coordination index is smaller in the big fluctuation year or the province by analyzing the volatility and average level of each year and province.