基于极限状态法的海上原油管道事故评估

Risk Assessment of Offshore Crude Oil Pipeline Failure Based on Limit State Method

海底管道由于所处环境的复杂性,腐蚀是其失效的主要因素。腐蚀的结果使得管道壁厚减薄,影响管道的强度及其承压能力,可能引发泄漏事故或爆炸事故。若管道泄漏检测系统(LDS)同时失效,那么原油泄漏将造成严重的经济损失甚至人员伤亡。构建了基于极限状态法的风险评估方法,运用统计方法确定了泄漏失效概率、爆炸失效概率、LDS系统失效概率,得到了联合失效概率,结合管道失效后增加环境污染成本、清理溢油成本、更换管道成本、原油的经济成本等成本风险,确定了海底管道的临界年,为运营公司的经济决策提供了依据。

Failure of Leak Detection System（LDS） to detect pipeline leakages or ruptures may result in drastic consequences that could lead to excessive financial losses. To minimize the occurrence of such failure, the functionality of the LDS and the integrity of the pipeline should be assessed on a priority basis. This paper presents an integrated risk-based assessment scheme to predict the failure and the failure consequences of offshore crude oil pipelines. To estimate risk, two important quantities have to be determined, the joint probability of failure of the pipeline and its LDS and the consequences of failure. Consequences incorporate the financial losses associated with environmental damage, oil spill cleanup and lost production. The assessment provides an estimate of the risk in monetary value and determines whether the estimated risk exceeds a predefined target risk. Moreover, the critical year for the asset can be determined. In essence, the outcome of the assessment facilitates an informed decision-making about the future of the asset.