大型活动对用电市场的影响分析

Analysis of the influence of big events on electricity market

梳理了大型活动对用电市场的影响事件及机理,将影响事件进行量化,以贝叶斯神经网络法、支持向量机预测法、灰色预测法为单项预测法,将各单项预测法所得的测算结果进行组合预测,建立了基于全样本的多维度自适应电量测算模型,以2016年9月4日—5日在杭州召开的G20峰会为例,利用历史运维数据进行受影响后电量的分析测算,通过实际数据校验说明了测算结果的合理性。建立的分析模型可为未来大型活动下的电力电量测算、电网运行方式安排与电力企业后续工作开展提供参考。

The influencing affairs of big events and their mechanism on electricity market were sorted out. The influencing affairs were quantified. By using Bayesian neural network method,SVM forecasting method and gray prediction method as the individual forecasting method and by obtaining the results of the individual forecasting method to do combination forecasting,the multi-dimensional adaptive power measurement model based on whole sample was established.The G20 summit was taken as an example and the historical data were used to calculate the electricity consumption affected by the summit,and the reasonableness of the result was explained by the verification of actual data. The analytical model built can provide reference for the calculation of electric power in future large-scale activities,the arrangement of grid operation mode and follow-up work of electric power enterprises.