学有所值还是得不偿失?——我国大学本土留学个人教育风险的实证研究

Is Learning Worth It or Not?——A Quantitative Analysis of the Individual Risk of Localized Overseas Education at Undergraduate Level

利用分位数回归、模糊综合评价法,根据来自7所相关院校学生的样本数据,对本土留学个人教育风险进行计量分析。基于分位数回归模型可知:不同分位点下,是否接受本土留学教育对个人收入水平的影响不同,影响个人收入水平的因素不同,各个变量对个人收入水平的影响程度不同;相对于普通高等教育,本土留学教育对个人收入水平的影响在-1.2%~32%之间波动,本土留学教育存在明显的经济风险。基于多层次模糊综合评价模型可知:由第一层结果向量B得出,本土留学个人教育投资非经济风险综合评定处于"适中"水平;由第二层的评价结果向量B1、B2、B3得出,相对学习生活风险、教育质量风险,本土留学教育在就业/升学层面的风险等级略高。

Based on the data sampling from 7 universities and colleges,this paper employs quintile regression and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to evaluate the impact of localized overseas education on individual risk.Results from quintile regression analysis are summarized as follows： localized overseas education exerts different effects on different student groups; in contrast to regular higher education,the effect on individual economic return of localized overseas education ranges from-1.2％to 32％,which shows that the economic risk of localized overseas education is highly volatile.Results from fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model suggest as follows： the non-economic risk for individuals receiving localized overseas education is at a moderate level; compared with learning environment and educational quality,the risk concerning seeking employment and further education is at a slightly higher level.