面向地震灾情时序变化的应急救援物资需求动态预测研究

Research on Dynamic Demand Prediction of Emergency Relief Materials Oriented to the Temporal and Spatial Change of Earthquake Disaster Losses

对应急救援物资需求进行高效、精准的动态预测,是保障受灾群众基本生活、提高灾害应急救助效率的重要技术保障,也是灾害科学研究领域的热点问题。在深入分析地震应急救援及物资需求特点的基础上,提出了"基于时序变化的救灾物资需求预测模型",针对受灾人口的年龄分布对物资需求量的影响进行分析,建立向量模型来描述人口结构对生活类救援物资的影响。综合考虑受灾群众的心理和家庭观念等因素,分析了"不考虑家庭规模"、"典型农村留守人员组成的家庭为主体"、"普通三口之家为主体"等家庭组成,对三种情境下的应急救援物资需求进行了模拟。通过分析生活类物资和取暖御寒类物资的需求变化与受灾人口的变化之间的关系。最后通过实际案例,证明了针对饮用水和帐篷等救援物资动态需求预测模型的合理性。

The efficient and accurate dynamic forecasting of emergency relief supplies is an important technical guarantee to ensure the basic life of the affected people and to improve the efficiency of disaster emergency rescue. And it is also a hot issue in the field of disaster science research. The prediction model of disaster relief demand based on time series change was proposed, based on the in-depth analysis of the characteristics of earthquake emergency rescue and relief demand. Establish a vector model to describe the impact of population structure on life-related relief supplies by analyzing the impact of the age distribution of the affected population on the demand for relief. Taking into account factors such as the psychological condition of the affected people and the family philosophy, we analyze the family composition of the family size without consideration, typical rural stay-at-home personnel consisting of families, and ordinary family of three as the mainstay, under three scenarios. And the demand for emergency relief materials under the three situations is simulated. By analyzing the relationship between changes in demand for supplies of life-related materials and warm supplies and changes in the population affected by disasters, a cumulative disaster-to-disaster statistics model for each stage of emergency response is given. Finally, through actual cases, it is proved that the prediction model of dynamic demand for drinking water and tent is reasonable.