广东省泥石流和滑坡灾害风险变化的经济社会驱动因素分析

Analyses of Socioeconomic Driving Factors on the Risk Variations of Debris-flow and Landslide Hazards in Guangdong Province

2000年与2010年广东省泥石流和滑坡灾害风险等级的对比结果表明,其中10个县(市、区)的风险等级由中度风险上升为高度风险。该文以此10个风险等级升高的县(市、区)为研究案例,通过对2000-2010年10年间影响灾害易损性的物质、经济、环境和社会4个方面评价指标的分析,阐明各评价指标对广东省泥石流和滑坡灾害风险变化的影响。研究结果表明,累计15年固定资产投资总额和国内生产总值对广东省泥石流和滑坡灾害风险等级升高有驱动作用。土地资源总价值对广东省泥石流和滑坡灾害风险等级变化无显著影响。人口密度增加与广东省泥石流和滑坡灾害风险等级升高呈正向关系,但并非风险等级升高的主要因素。人口质量的提高对广东省泥石流和滑坡灾害风险的调控作用有待于今后的进一步研究。

Debris-flow and landslide are common geological hazards in Guangdong province. Understanding the driving factors of the socioeconomic indexes for the risk changes of debris-flow and landslide hazards is of crucial importance to make the regional plan for the disaster prevention and mitigation, as well as for the regional sustainable development. Comparison of the debris-flow and landslide risks in Guangdong province during 2000 to 2010 shows that there were 10 counties （municipalities, regions） whose risk-classes of debris-flow and landslide hazards have been increased from moderate risks to high risks. Therefore, taking the 10 risk-increased counties （municipalities, regions） as the study cases, using the vulnerability assessment model proposed by the previous studies, based on the socioeconomic indexes, the paper comparatively analyzed the factors of the material, economic, environmental and social indexes of the 10 counties （municipalities, regions） in 2000 and in 2010, respectively. The study concludes that the accumulated fixed asset investment and the Gross Domestic Product （GDP） are the driving factors for the increase of the debris-flow and landslide risks in Guangdong province during 2000-2010; the total land resource value is not significant to the risk variations; the increase of the population density has a certain degree of influence on the increase of the debris-flow and landslide risks, but not the main driving factor. While the influences of the education level, affluence degree, and age structure of the population are complicated and need to be studied further.