中尺度海气浪耦合模式对西北太平洋双台风影响下的海浪预报研究

Study on the Wind Wave Prediction of Binary Typhoons over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean with Mesoscale Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Model

为了分析中尺度海气浪耦合模式对西北太平洋双台风影响下的海浪预报效果,采用GFS全球预报系统和西北太平洋海洋预报系统预报场驱动区域中尺度海气浪耦合模式,针对西北太平洋一次"双台风"共同影响下的台风浪进行了连续5 d逐日72 h预报,并分析了海浪场预报分布特征,检验了耦合模式的海浪预报性。结果表明,耦合模式能较好地预报出双台风移动路径,以及双台影响下的海浪分布、演变特征。台风浪的最大有效波高与近中心最大风速成正比、中心最低气压成反比的演变规律与模式预报的较为一致,波高的整体预报效果与卫星高度计观测值较为吻合。但台风浪的预报效果受台风强度、所处海域等影响,远海期间海浪的预报效果要优于近海和台风强度明显变化期的。研究结果可为后续耦合模式的台风浪业务化定量预报发展提供有益参考。

The mesoscale coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model is introduced in this paper and its forecast performance for wind wave parameters over the northwestern Pacific Ocean has been evaluated by using the GFS and the Northwest Pacific ocean forecasting data. The researchers carried out a 72-h forecasting experiment for 5 days, when the binary typhoons took place over the northwestern Pacific Ocean, and examined the distribution characteristics and predictability of the wind wave field. The results showed that the typhoon tracks as well as the characteristics of wave distribution and evolution can be well forecasted. It is found that the forecasted significant wave height increases with increasing maximum wind and decreasing minimum surface pressure near the typhoon center. The forecasted significant wave height field is well consistent with the satellite altimeters observations of Jason-3. Because of the impact of specific intensity and location, the forecast performance of wind wave parameters over the open sea is better than that over the offshore areas and that during the abrupt changing period of typhoon intensity. In this paper, the related conclusions can provide some useful reference for the operational quantitative forecasts of typhoon waves by using the coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model.