官员变更与政策不确定性:一个综述

The Local Officials' Turnover and Policy Uncertainty:A Review

在以政府官员主导的发展模式中,政府治理问题是当前经济转型和改革的重要问题。文章以现有文献为基础,系统地梳理和分析了政治激励下地方官员变更与地区经济增长的关系和具体的作用机制,以及官员变更常态化所带来的政策不确定性对财政政策和企业经营行为的影响,最后指出如何保持经济政策的连续性和稳定性,确保政令连续、决策连贯的基本要求,是今后将要重点解决和关注的问题。

In the development model dominated by government officials, governance is an important issue in the current economic transformation and reform. On the basis of the existing literature, this paper summarizes and discusses the relationship and interaction mechanism between economic growth and local officials＇ turnover under the political incentive, and the influence of the policy uncertainty brought by the normalization of local officials＇ turnover on the fiscal policy and enterprise management behavior. Finally, how to maintain the continuity and stability of economic policy and ensure the continuity of government order and the consistency of decision-making are the key issues that will be solved and paid attention to in the future.