产能过剩、企业经营风险与地区金融安全——来自山西省煤炭上市公司的经验证据

Overcapacity,Business Risk and Regional Financial Security——Empirical Evidence from Listed Coal Companies in Shanxi

运用"债务—通缩"理论和金融体系脆弱性理论,分析了债务融资模式主导下的产能过剩行业或地区可能产生影响金融安全的风险传导路径与机制,并利用2006~2015年山西省煤炭上市公司作为样本构建了中介效应模型,对产能过剩影响金融安全的风险传导路径加以验证。研究表明:在山西省煤炭行业产能过剩影响地区金融安全的传导路径中,产能过剩直接引起产品价格下跌及企业盈利减少,当其中的高负债企业发生经营亏损以致无法偿还债务时,贷款及债券违约的概率便会随之增加,金融机构的资产质量出现恶化,金融体系的脆弱性加剧,进而威胁到地区金融体系的安全性,且企业经营亏损的中介效应十分显著;在反映企业经营亏损状态的四个指标中,经营活动现金净流量减少以及净利润下降这两个指标的中介效应最大,净资产收益率及毛利率下降的中介效应较低。

Applying the theory of debt-deflation and the financial system instability theory, this article analyzes the conduction mechanism and path of the risk which may affect the financial security in overcapacity industry or regions under the debt financing mode. The risk conduction paths of overcapacity which affect financial security is verified through the mediating effect model constructed with the listed coal companies in Shanxi province during 2006-2015. The research shows that： In the conduction paths of the risk which is caused by the impact of overcapacity on financial security, overcapacity directly causes the decrease of product prices and corporate profits. When one of the high debt enterprise faces op-erating losses and can not repay the debt, loans and bonds default probability will be increased. The quality of assets of financial institutions will get worse, and the vulnerability of the financial system will aggravate. Thus, this will be a threat to the safety of the financial system. What＇s more, the mediating effect of business losses is very significant. In the four indexes indicating business loss, the mediating effect of the decrease of net operating cash flow and the reduce of the decline in net profit are the biggest, while the mediating effect of the rate of return on net assets and gross margin decline is relatively low.