1995—2016年登陆华南台风极端灾害特征的统计分析

Analysis of Statistical Characteristics of the Extreme Disaster of Typhoon Landfall in Southern China During the Year 1995—2016

利用最新整理的1995—2016年登陆影响华南的台风灾害的资料,从登陆台风的强度、频数和时空方面对华南台风极端灾害的特征进行统计分析.结果表明,1995—2016年登陆华南地区的台风频数比1973—1994年有所减少,但台风强度明显增强.从时空角度来讲,登陆华南地区的台风月尺度频数分布呈正态分布,且主要于西北太平洋生成后西行或西北行在华南地区登陆,其中有近一半的台风会对华南三省区同时产生灾情.从灾情的年际变化看,致灾源的风雨因子对灾情影响较大.

Based on the latest data of typhoon disasters in southern China from the year 1995 to 2016 9 the characteristics of typhoon extreme disasters in southern China are statistically analyzed in terms of the intensity, frequency and time and space of typhoon landfalls. The results show that the frequency of typhoons landing in southern China from the year 1995 to 2016 is lower than that of the year 1973 to 1994, but the typhoon intensity obviously increased. From the point of view of time and space, the monthly frequency distribution of typhoons landing in South China shows normal distribu-tion, mainly the westbound or northwest landfalls in South China after the formation in the northwest Pacific Ocean. Nearly half of the typhoons hit the three southern provinces at the same time. In view of the disaster situation in inter-annual variation, the weather factor of the disaster- induced source has great influence on the disaster.