基于仿真的风-电-氢能源系统效益评价

Simulation Based Wind-Electricity-Hydrogen Energy System Benefits Evaluation

对清洁能源的效益评价大多关注经济性而忽视其环境效益和社会效益,据此,采用系统动力学仿真方法,将综合效益评价指标及其影响因素置于资源、经济、环境、社会四个子系统,探究各子系统的因果反馈关系,动态分析未来20年风-电-氢能源系统综合效益。仿真结果显示政策因子、待遇因子、中高级人才比例和碳税组合取值对综合效益产生显著影响。上述仿真模型可模拟风-电-氢能源系统不同发展时期情况,为新能源产业发展提供决策依据。

Most of the studies on clean energy benefits evaluation focus on economic benefits other than environmental benefits and social benefits. Therefore, using the method of system dynamics, the comprehensive benefit evaluation index and its influencing factors were put into four subsystems called economy, resources, environment and social. The causal feedback relationships between subsystems were studied. The comprehensive benefits of wind - elec- tricity - hydrogen energy system was dynamically analyzed for the next 20 years. The simulation results show that pol- icy factors, treatment factors, the proportion of middle and senior talents and the combination of carbon tax have a significant impact on comprehensive benefits. The simulation model can simulate the different development stages of the wind - electricity - hydrogen energy system, and provide the decision - making basis for the development of new energy industry.