房价上涨、建筑业扩张与中国制造业的用工问题

Increasing Housing Prices,the Expansion of the Construction Industry and China's Manufacturing Employment

基于2004—2013年的中国城市数据,本文检验了房价上涨对中国制造业-建筑业就业结构的影响及具体特点,试图为我国制造业的用工问题提供新的解释。研究表明:房价上涨显著改变了中国制造业-建筑业的就业结构,促进了建筑业就业,"挤出"了制造业就业,恶化了制造业的用工问题。拓展分析还发现:(1)房价上涨的作用表现出地区差异和时间差异,格外冲击了东部沿海开放城市的制造业就业,且在经济危机后作用更明显;(2)房价上涨显著改变了微观企业的用工决策,阻碍了制造业企业的就业扩张,促进了建筑业企业就业,且这一作用依赖于企业所有制类型、要素密集度、员工学历等因素;(3)房价上涨显著提高了制造业企业和建筑业企业的工资,但降低了制造业相对建筑业的工资水平,进而建筑业更容易吸引劳动力流入。

Summary： In China, labor scarcity in the manufacturing industry and the rapid rise of housing prices have co-existed since 2004. First, labor costs in China＇s manufacturing industry have risen consistently since 2004. Labor scarcity has become a serious problem for China＇s manufacturing firms and ＂ snatching labor＂ is now an important annual task for many firms in eastern coastal cities. Second, the constraints of land resources on China＇s economic development have intensified. After China implemented reforms in its housing market and land-supply system in 2003, housing prices increased significantly and the construction industry expanded rapidly. Does the increase in housing prices and the expansion of the construction industry affect employment in the manufacturing industry and the employment structure of the manufacturing and construction industries？ It is crucial to evaluate the economic effects of increasing housing prices and to understand the development or transformation of China＇s manufacturing industry. According to Robertzinski＇s theorem, an increase in housing prices leads to an expansion of the construction industry and increased wages, causing more laborers to move into the construction industry. The construction industry, which includes construction, installation, and decoration, is labor-intensive and needs many low-skilled laborers, who are also in demand by the Chinese manufacturing industry. Therefore, an increase in housing prices and an expansion of the construction industry draws workers away from the manufacturing industry, exacerbating the employment problem in the manufacturing industry and resulting in a structural employment mismatch between the manufacturing and construction industries. In addition, Chinese governments always use housing markets and land markets to spur economic growth and increase local finances, leading to a larger rise in housing prices and accelerating the flow of labor and other resources to the construction industry. The manufacturing industry must raise wages and their traditional comparative advantages are obviously weakened. Because it is not the same as a shortage of labor supply, such wage increases and employment scarcity in manufacturing caused by increasing housing prices hide the real decline in comparative advantage, as it is a deviation in the industrial structure away from local actual comparative advantages. This can even lead to ＂Dutch disease＂. To identify the effects of increasing housing prices on China＇s manufacturing employment, we conduct an empirical analysis following Charles et al. （2012, 2013） , using panel data covering Chinese cities from 2004 to 2013. We prove that an increase in housing prices in China significantly affects the employment structure of the manufacturing and construction industries and reduces the employment absorptive capacity of the manufacturing industry relative to the construction industry. Our extensive analyses also find that （ 1 ） the effects of housing prices depend on region and time, （2） increases in housing prices significantly decrease employment in China＇s manufacturing firms but expand employment in construction firms, although these effects are heterogeneous and depend on firms＇ factor-intensity, ownership, and other characteristics, and that （3） increasing housing prices also raises wages in China＇s manufacturing and construction firms but reduces wages in China＇s manufacturing industry relative to its construction industry. Our study provides a new perspective for understanding the economic effects of housing prices and the development of the manufacturing industry in China. It also has policy implications for the Chinese government. The government must realize that the excessive growth of housing prices in China has hindered the development of the manufacturing industry and may lead to more serious problems in unemployment and social stability in the future. Therefore, it is important for Chinese governments to deal with the relationship between increasing housing prices and economic growth, between increasing housing prices and the development of the manufacturing industry, and between increasing housing prices and labor skills training.