人口老龄化的居民消费效应的测度与比较

Measurement and Comparison on Consumer Effect of Population Aging

文章首先从理论模型推导出人口老龄化对居民消费具有促进作用。利用中国2000—2014年省级面板数据进行了实证检验,固定效应和分位数的回归结果表明：城镇地区人口老龄化对居民消费率具有显著的促进作用,而且随着分位数的提高,城镇地区老年抚养比对居民的消费率的影响呈现出＂倒U型＂的变化;农村地区人口老龄化对居民的消费作用不显著,但随着分位数的提高,农村地区老年抚养比对居民消费率的影响呈现下降趋势。

This paper first deduces from the theoretical model that population aging can promote the consumption of resi- dents, and then uses China＇ s provincial panel data from 2000 to 2014 to make an empirical test. Fixed effect and regression re- suits of quantile indicate that the aging of population in urban areas has a significant impact on the consumption rate of residents, and with the increase of quantile, the impact of population aging on consumption rate in urban areas assumes an ＂inverted U＂ change; the aging population in rural area does not show significant effect on residents＇ consumption, hut with the increase of quantile, the impact of population aging on consumption rate shows a declining trend.