我国城乡人均收入差异变化的多指标建模

Multi-Index Modeling of Per Capita Income Differences between China’s Urban and Rural Areas

为了多维度刻画我国城乡人均收入差异变化的动态情况,文章在常用的绝对量差异和相对量差异指标的基础上,提出了刻画城乡人均收入差异变化快慢的一个新指标——差异速率。此外,为了避免传统建模方法造成的相关信息损失,提出了融合方法建模。并基于1978—2016年间我国城乡人均收入数据,分别构建了绝对量差异的具有三次趋势的残差ARIMA（3,2,0）模型和相对量差异的ARIMA（1,1,0）模型,而且对2017—2020年三种指标的变化趋势进行了预测,结果表明：我国城乡人均收入绝对量差异仍在扩大,年均增长的速度约为6.71%;相对量差异正逐步缓慢缩小,年均降低的速度保持在0.06%左右;差异速率也在降低,年均降低的速度约为0.1%。

In order to multi-dimensionally describe the dynamic, change of per capila income between urban and rural areas in China, this paper presents a new index - difference rate, which describes the change speed of per capita income between urban and rural areas. In addition, to avoid the loss of related information caused by the traditional modeling method, the paper proposes the fusion modeling method. Based on the per capita income data of urban and rural areas in China from 1978 to 2016, the paper respectively constructs the residual ARIMA （3,2,0） model with three order trend for absolute quautity difference and the ARIMA （1,1,0） model for relative quantity difference. And finally the three indicators from 2017 to 2020 are forecasted. The resuhs show that the absolute differences of per capita income between urban and rural areas of China are still widening, with an average annual growth rate proximately at 6.71%; the relative differences are gradually narrowing, with an average annual reduction rate at around 0.06%; the difference rate is also decreasing, with an average annual reduction rate at around 0.1%.