PPP项目合同主体收益分配博弈模型及实证分析

Game model and empirical analysis of revenue distribution between contract subjects in PPP project

PPP项目合同主体之间存在目标差异以及利益冲突,可能无法达到各方期望的投资回报率而导致PPP难以实施。合理收益分配机制是协调上述矛盾关键因素之一,也是PPP项目前期协商谈判的核心内容。构建PPP项目合同主体收益分配博弈模型,分别求解静态博弈与动态博弈下合同参与主体的策略组合及均衡关系表达式,并赋值分析发起人保留收益系数和投资人能力系数的参数特性和模型运行规律,推导出合理的发起人回报率、投资人努力水平系数,可为PPP项目合同主体进行合理的项目收益分配提供借鉴,从而促进PPP项目模式的规范化发展。

Due to objective differences and interest conflicts among PPP project contractors, the expected investment return of all parties may not be achieved, leading to the implementation difficulty of PPP. Reasonable profit distribution mechanism is one of the key factors for coordinating those contradictions and is also a core content of the pre-PPP negotiation. A revenue distribution game model for the participants of PPP project contract is established, and the strategic combination and equilibrium relationship expression of contract participants are solved under the static game and dynamic game, respectively. Then, the parameter characteristics and model operation rules of sponsor retained earning coefficient and investor ability coefficient are evaluated, and reasonable sponsor return rate and investor effort level coefficient are derived, which provide references for the contract subjects to make a reasonable revenue distribution and promote the standardization development of PPP projects.