基于时间序列模型的我国中药出口预测分析

Forecast analysis on export of Chinese materia medica based on time series model

利用1994—2016年我国中药出口数据预测未来几年我国中药出口的走势,并从供需角度分析我国中药出口现状。基于时间序列ARIMA模型研究方法,通过序列平整性检验、模型识别、验证、预测等步骤,建立最优模型。ARIMA(3,2,3)模式是预测中药出口趋势的最优模型,利用该模型得出我国2017—2020年的中药出口额的预测额分别是36.87、43.63、48.50、49.65亿美元。最后分析我国的中药出口供给份额、结构上存在的问题,我国的中药供给没有正确认识国际市场的需求,并提出我国的中药出口应抓住"大健康"环境与"一带一路"倡议的机遇。

To forecast the export trend of Chinese materia medica（CMM） in China in the next few years by using the export data of CMM from 1994 to 2016, and analyze the current situation of CMM export. Based on time series ARIMA model, the optimal model was established by sequence leveling test, model identification, verification, and prediction. The ARIMA（3, 2, 3） model is the optimal model to forecast the export trend of CMM. We use this model to conclude that the forecast of CMM exports in China from 2017 to 2020 is 3.687, 4.363, 4.850, and 4.965 billions, respectively. Finally, we put forward the problem of the share of CMM export supply and its structural problems. The supply of CMM in China does not have a correct understanding of the demand in the international market. China＇s exports of CMM should seize the opportunity of the ＂Comprehensive Health＂ environment and the ＂Belt and Road＂ Initiative.