考虑参照点且属性关联的应急风险决策方法

Risk Decision Analysis Method for Emergency Response that Utilizes Decision Maker Reference Points and Correlated Attributes

针对决策者给出属性期望且存在属性关联的突发事件应急风险决策问题,提出一种基于失望理论和Choquet积分的决策分析方法.将决策者给出的属性期望视为参照点,构建基于参照点的益损矩阵,并依据失望理论将益损矩阵转化为感知价值矩阵;然后,通过集结各状态下的感知价值矩阵,构建综合感知价值矩阵;进一步地,借助Choquet积分计算出每个应急方案的综合评价值,并依据综合评价值的大小对应急方案进行排序;最后,通过一个算例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性.

To solve risk decision-making problems for emergency response,we propose a decision analysis method based on the disappointment theory and the Choquet integral,with attribute expectations given by decision makers（ DMs） and correlated attributes. Attribute expectations given by DMs are regarded as initial reference points. Then,we build a matrix with the alternative gains or losses relative to the reference points and a perceived value matrix based on the disappointment theory. Based on the above matrices,we construct a comprehensive perceived-value matrix. Then,we calculate the comprehensive prospect value for each alternative based on the Choquet integral,and obtain the ranking result of the alternatives according to their comprehensive prospect values. We use a numerical example to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.