基于DSGE视角的中国碳排放政策与经济增长

Chinese Carbon Emission Policy and Economic Growth Based on DSGE Model

为模拟我国不同强度碳排放政策下实体经济波动情况,构建了包含碳排放政策的DSGE模型,试图分析面临技术冲击和政策冲击时不同强度的碳排放政策对我国主要宏观经济变量的影响。结果表明：碳减排与保持经济增速两个目标的实现在短期内具有相悖性,政府对碳排放政策强度的关注度不同,其对宏观经济变量的影响也不同;效果过强或过弱的碳排放政策均不利于中国经济长期可持续发展,适度的碳排放政策才会达到平衡兼顾的效果。

In order to simulate the economic fluctuation under different carbon emission policies of different strength,this paper constructs a DSGE model including carbon emission policies to analyze how the policies influence on a country＇s main macroeconomic variables when facing technology shocks and policy shocks. Results show that： It is inconsistent in China between realizing the goals of reducing carbon emission and maintaining economic growth. When the government pays different attention to the strength of carbon emission,the influence on the mail macroeconomic variables is different. It will have negative impact on Chinese long-term development no matter the carbon emission policies are too strong or too weak. The Balancing effect will be realized only by choosing the carbon emission policy with moderate intensity.