基于改进生活质量指数的社会挽救生命成本及在地震生命损失估计中的应用

Societal life saving cost based on improved LQI with applications to evaluation of earthquake fatality losses

在最新版的ISO标准《结构可靠性总原则ISO 2394:2015》中,通过引入柯布-道格拉斯弹性常数,对生活质量指数(Life Quality Index,LQI)进行了改进。本文综合世界各国对休闲时间比例的观点,结合ISO 2394:2015对工作时间比例进行的修正,改进了避免死亡隐含费用(Implied Cost of Averting a Fatality,ICAF)和社会生命挽救成本(Societal Life Saving Cost,SLSC)等社会经济综合指标。采用基于改进LQI的社会可接受准则,通过考虑我国社会经济发展状况、居民休闲娱乐的时间以及期望寿命等因素,对我国地震中人员伤亡损失的货币价值进行了评估,对我国31个省市2008年及2017年的ICAF值进行了计算和对比分析,并以汶川地震及钢筋混凝土框架结构为例,研究了ICAF和SLSC在地震人员伤亡损失估计中的应用。

In the newest ISO standard General Principles on Structural Reliability（ISO 2394：2015）,the Life Quality Index（LQI） was improved by introducing the Cobb-Douglas elasticity constant. In this paper,by synthesizing different views on the leisure time ratio in the world,combining an improved working time ratio proposed by ISO2394：2015,and then,the comprehensive societal-economic indicators,including implied cost of averting a fatality（ICAF）,life-saving cost（LSC）,and societal life-saving costs（SLSC）,are re-derived and re-formulated by introducing the improved LQI. By using the social acceptance criteria based on the improved Life Quality Index（LQI）,the monetary values of the human casualties in earthquakes in China are evaluated,with considerations of the following factors in China： the socio-economic development,the leisure times of residents,and the life expectancies.The ICAF values in the 31 Provinces and cities of China in 2008 and 2017 are calculated and compared respectively. Finally,taking Wenchuan earthquake and a reinforced concrete frame building as examples,the application of the ICAF and SLSC to the evaluation of the earthquake causality losses is illustrated.