长三角集装箱港口体系演化及影响因素分析

Analysis on the Evolution and Influence Factors of Yangtze River delta container port system

港口的发展对区域乃至国家经济发展有着重要的影响,港口体系演化研究一直是港口地理研究的热点。选取长三角14个集装箱港口为研究对象,以1990~2015年间港口集装箱吞吐量、集装箱港口数量为研究数据,运用基尼系数和偏移-份额分析法分析了长三角集装箱港口体系的总体集散趋势和演化过程,重点凝练其演化模型并分析了演化的影响因素。研究发现:长三角集装箱港口体系经历了分散和集中两种发展趋势,呈现出格局特点明显不同的4个发展阶段,并朝着区域化阶段发展。形成了"原始单核结构→极核枢纽结构→双核枢纽结构→多核协同发展结构"的演化模型。长三角集装箱港口体系演化过程是在多种因素共同作用下形成的,主要包括自然条件、技术条件、区域经济、政策和制度、全球价值链和供应链等,并且不同因素在各阶段对集装箱港口体系演化的影响程度不同。研究有助于进一步完善集装箱港口体系的演化模型,并对长三角集装箱港口体系建设具有一定的指导意义。

Ports play an important role in the economic development of a region and the country,therefore the research on the evolution of port system has always been a hot topic in port geography area. Based on the port container throughput and container port number data of 14 container ports in the Yangtze River Delta during1990-2015,and using Gini coefficients and offset-share analysis,this study analyzes the general concentration trend and spatial evolution of the container port system in this area. Also the main points of the evolution model,and its influential factors are investigated. The results show that the container port system in this area has experienced two trends of decentralization and centralization,and there are four different stages with distinct characteristics. Generally,the spatial pattern in this area is reoriented toward regional concentration. Then the evolutionary model of ＂original single-nuclear→polarization core→dual-core development→multi-core cooperative development＂is finally defined. The evolution of the Yangtze River Delta container port system is affected by various factors,including natural conditions,technical progress,regional economy,policy and politics,and global value chain and supply chain. And the key drivers,their order and magnitude of these factors are different,depending on the development stage. This study contributes to further improve the evolution model of container port system,and the results are helpful for the construction of the Yangtze River delta container port system.