基于完备集合经验模态分解的赣江径流多尺度变化特征

Multi-scale Variation Characteristics of Ganjiang River's Runoff Based on CEEMD

利用完备集合经验模态分解(CEEMD)方法,结合趋势分析、突变检验和功率谱分析对径流序列进行多尺度变化特征分析表明,近66年来赣江径流变化上升速率为6.5×10~8m^3/10 a,MK趋势检验的Z统计量为0.653,上升趋势不显著;1989年~1990年前后发生了突变;赣江径流变化序列具有显著的非线性、非稳定性特征,径流的准3 a周期可能与长江流域降水的准3 a周期相关;准6 a、准14 a和准26 a周期,则可能与厄尔尼诺和太阳活动相关。

The multi-scale variation characteristics of runoff series are analyzed by using complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition（ CEEMD） method combined with trend analysis,mutation test and power spectrum analysis. The results show that,（ a） the increase rate of runoff in Ganjiang River is 6. 5 × 10 8 m3/10 a in 1950—2015 and the Z statistic of the MK trend test is 0. 653,so the rising trend is not significant;（ b） there is a mutation between 1989 and 1990; and（ c） that the runoff variation series of Ganjiang River has significant nonlinear and unstable characteristics,the 3 a cycle of runoff may be related to the 3 a period of precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin,and the 6 a,14 a and 26 a cycle may be related to El Ni1 o and long term solar activities.