摘要
目前,梯级水库群防洪调度风险的研究存在仅考虑单一风险因子或缺乏考虑防护点风险等问题。针对上述问题,在识别梯级水库群联合预报调度方式风险源和风险的基础上,建立了考虑多种不确定性影响下的水库群自身及防护点的综合风险分析模型,采用蒙特卡洛随机模拟法由上游至下游计算其风险率。昭平台-白龟山梯级水库群的实例表明,联合预报调度方式的实施不会增加额外风险。
At present,the problems of the risk analysis of cascade reservoirs＇ joint flood control studies are only considered single risk factor or lacking the protecting points risk. To solve mentioned problems,based on a comprehensive identification of risk sources and risks of cascade reservoirs＇ joint flood control operation mode with forecast information（ JFCOMFI）,an integrated risk analysis model of JFCOMFI for cascade reservoirs and protecting points is established involving multiple uncertainties. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to calculate the risk rates from upstream to downstream. The example of Zhaopingtai-Baiguishan cascade reservoirs shows that the implementation of JFCOMFI doesn＇t increase risk.
作者
刁艳芳
段震
张荣
程家兴
陈鑫
董洁
DIAO Yanfang;DUAN Zhen;ZHANG Rong;CHENG Jiaxing;CHEN Xin;DONG Jie(College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Shandong Agricultural University,Taian 271018,Shandong,China;Hydrology Bureau of Taian,Taian 271000,Shandong,China)
出处
《水力发电》
北大核心
2018年第8期82-86,共5页
Water Power
基金
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(2013370212-0014)
国家科技支撑计划(2015BAB07B05)
关键词
联合预报调度方式
洪水预报误差
不确定性
风险分析模型
joint operation mode with forecast information
flood forecasting error
uncertainty
risk analysis model
