人口结构和经济增长对碳排放的影响分析

Study on the Impact of Population Structure and Economic Growth on Carbon Emission

利用中国30个省级行政单位(暂不包括港澳台地区,下同)2005~2014年的数据,采用动态面板模型,研究人口结构、经济增长对碳排放的影响.研究结果表明,从全国范围来看,人均GDP、劳动年龄人口比率、城市化率、第二产业就业率及对外开放度均对碳排放有显著正向影响,而平均家庭规模会减少碳排放量;从区域来看,人均GDP、劳动年龄人口比率对碳排放产生显著正向影响,其他因素对碳排放的影响程度及方向有较大差异.

The dynamic panel model is used to study the effect of population structure and economic growth on carbon emissions by using the data of 30 provincial administrative units in China （Not including data of Hong Kong, Macao and Tai- wan for the time being, the same below）from 2005 to 2014. The results show that, from a national perspective, per capita GDP, working age population ratio, urbanization rate, secondary industry employment rate and the rate of openness have a sig- nificant positive impact on carbon emissions, while the average household size will reduce carbon emissions;From the regional point of view, per capita GDP, working age population ratio has a significant positive impact on carbon emissions; other factors have different influence on the degree and the direction of carbon emissions.