棉花目标价格改革对国内棉花市场影响的实证分析

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Target Price Reform on China's Cotton Market

深化农产品价格形成机制改革是完善农业支持保护制度的核心内容,是强化乡村振兴制度供给的重要内容。基于中美棉花现货价格、中国与国际棉花价格以及国内籽棉、皮棉和纱线市场价格等10个宏观价格数据,利用计量协整模型和格兰杰因果关系检验研究发现,目标价格改革后,国内棉花市场与国际棉花市场出现明显整合态势;同时,国内的籽棉与皮棉市场、皮棉与纱线市场呈现快速联动特征。因此,目标价格改革理顺了国内外棉花市场间和国内棉花产业不同环节市场间的关系,促进了国内棉花市场健康发展。下一步应继续完善棉花目标价格改革,为其他农产品价格形成机制改革积累经验。

Deepening the reform of the price formation mechanism of agricultural products is the core content of improving the system of agricultural support and protection, and is also an important content of strengthening the supply of Rural Revitalization system. This paper is based on the spot price of cotton in China and the United States,China and international cotton prices, and domestic market prices such as seed cotton, lint and yarn, which totally include 10 macro price data, and use the econometric cointegration model and the Grainger causality test, it is found that after the target price reform, the domestic cotton market and the international cotton market have obvious integration state. At the same time, the domestic cotton and lint market, lint and yarn market also showed rapid linkage characteristics. Therefore, the target price reform smoothed the relationship between the domestic and foreign cotton market and the different links of the domestic cotton industry and promoted the healthy development of the domestic cotton market. Next, we should continue to improve cotton target price reform, and accumulate experience for other agricultural product price formation mechanism reform.