跨国酒店集团在华区位分布及其影响因素——基于空间计量模型的实证分析

Multinational Hotel Groups' Location Choices in China: A Spatial Econometric Analysis

区位选择是地理学家和经济学家共同关注的重要话题,也是酒店经营扩张的重要决策。文章以在中国大陆地区经营的上市跨国酒店集团为样本,收集整理其在2000-2014年期间,在中国不同省份酒店扩张数据信息。在此基础上,首先,运用空间自相关Moran指数及其散点图、局域空间关联指标LISA集群图研究发现,跨国酒店集团在中国扩张区位呈现出从东部到西部阶梯式依次减少状态,并具有显著的临海型、中部塌陷和低变迁性特征,同时呈现出显著空间相关性和路径依赖特征,东中西部差异性明显。其次,利用空间面板回归模型检验发现,跨国酒店的空间分布受到中国各省份经济发展、房地产发展、旅游发展以及市场竞争等多方面因素的综合影响,并在不同区域存在显著差异。

Location choice is a critical decision for hotels during their business expansion processes and is a hot topic in both the geography and economics fields. In recent years, many multinational hotel groups have expanded into China, such as Wyndham Hotel Group, Inter Continental Hotel Resorts,and Accor Hotel Group. There were 26 multinational hotel groups operating 1442 hotels in China by December 31, 2014. These hotel groups chose different regions in China for their business expansion plans. What are the characteristics of their location choices in China？ What factors influenced their location decisions？ The related literature is currently limited. To explore these questions, this study collected data from these multinational hotel groups that diversified into the Chinese market between 2000 and2014. Empirical models and methods were proposed to obtain not only the overall situation and the changing characteristics of multinational hotel groups＇ expansion into different regions in China, but also the dynamic spatial expansion patterns and influential factors in these hotel groups＇ location choices.The following empirical findings were obtained.（1） According to the results of yearly spatial autocorrelation Moran index and Local Indicators of Spatial Association（LISA） cluster maps of the multinational hotel groups＇ hotels, the locations of the multinational hotel groups＇ hotels were found to extend from the east to the west in China. However, the number of hotels in these regions decreased successively according to their distance from the eastern coast of China.（2） According to the results of yearly Moran scatterplots and the spatial transition of Moran scatters, the characteristics of multinational hotel groups＇ geographical distribution in China are observed. Firstly, spatial correlation and path dependence are significant features of multinational hotels＇ geographical distribution. Secondly,there are remarkable differences in these characteristics in eastern, central, and western regions of China： multinational hotels are mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas; the percentage of multinational hotels in central areas is declined; the number of multinational hotels in western areas is with low variability.（3） A spatial econometric analysis was employed to test these influential factors in multinational hotel groups＇ spatial distribution. The spatial differences in these influential patterns were also tested. Among all these factors, the level of economic development has positive and statistically significant direct and spillover impacts with large estimated coefficients on the national scale and in eastern China. Increased real estate development drove the expansion of multinational hotels on the national scale and in eastern China, but its spatial spillover effect was negative. Fierce hotel competition and the callback of the inbound tourism market in recent years have hindered the expansion of multinational hotel groups into China. These results reflect the asset-light business model, high market preferences and low-risk characteristics of the multinational hotel groups＇ expansion processes.This study contributes to the literature on hotel location expansion by testing the spatial patterns and exploring the influential spatial factors of hotel location decisions from economic development and tourism market perspectives. Specifically, the demonstration of influential factors from a real estate development perspective provides a new perspective in the literature. Two practical implications were identified and discussed： i.e., hotel development policies should be consistent with the region＇s economic and tourism development level, and each region should design its multinational hotel industry development policies in line with the local conditions.