中国城市居民肉类消费及其对水资源的影响——基于一致的Two-step QUAIDS模型研究

Impact of Meat Consumption in Urban China on Water Resources——A Consistent Two-step QUAIDS Model

本研究运用一致的Two—step QUAIDS模型分析了肉类（包括畜、禽、水产品）需求变化特征，并从水足迹的角度探讨了肉类消费结构变化带来的资源环境效应．论证了从消费端进行价格干预实现水资源管理的可能性。结果表明．城市居民肉类消费需求随收入增长持续增加，同时，在外消费占比显著上升，由此带来的水资源压力也持续增大：但从结构上看，畜产品在肉类消费中比重将随收入提高而下降。从而使得单位重量肉类消费水足迹呈现下降趋势。进一步模拟结果表明，对在家消费的禽肉和水产品分别降价10％以及对在家畜肉产品加价10％，将使每千克肉类消费水足迹分别下降1．0％、2．9％及2．3％。本研究为从消费端探索水资源可持续利用提供了科学依据。

Using a consistence Two-step QUAIDS model,this study analyzes the changing characteristics of meat demand （including livestock,poultry,and aquatic products） in urban Chi- na and its impact on natural resource measured in water footprint.The goal is to explore potential means in saving water by pricing strategies at the meat consumption end. The results show that meat consumption in urban China increases significantly with income growth which further turns to the increasing pressure on water supply. This effect can be reinforced by the rising food con- sumed away from home.However, the decreasing proportion of livestock meat and meat products in total meat consumption due to income growth can mitigate the derived pressure on water con- sumption.The simulation results further indicate that a 10 percent decrease in poultry and aquatic products and a 10 percent increase in livestock could reduce water utilization from meat con- sumption by 1 percent,2.9 percent and 2.3 percent,respectively.These findings provide scientific evidences in guiding sustainable water use from meat consumption end.