农业劳动力老龄化与中国粮食生产——基于劳动增强型生产函数分析

The Aging Effect of Agriculture Labor Force on Grain Production in China——An Empirical Study Based on the Labor-augmenting Production Function

针对目前中国粮食生产结构与实际需求不匹配，本文将农业劳动力数量和老龄化率引入劳动增强型生产函数（C—D函数），分析农业劳动力老龄化对玉米、小麦和稻谷三大粮食作物产量的影响。研究发现，中国粮食生产存在明显的“内卷化”，这阻碍了粮食增产。农业劳动力老龄化可以在一定程度上减少粮食生产劳动投入，推动粮食生产规模化与机械化，通过提高单产与种植面积促进粮食增产。此外，中国粮食增产尚处于依赖要素和资本投入阶段：从长远来看，在劳动力知识水平未显著提高的情况下，这种增长模式是不可持续的。因此，可以通过提高农业劳动力人力资本、发展农业新型经营主体实现适度规模经营．加速机械、技术等现代要素的引入，促进我国粮食生产。

This article employs the labor-augmenting production function （C-D） with specifying the amount of labor and the aging rate to analyze the influence of the agriculture labor aging on the production of maize,wheat, and rice in China.The results suggest that the obvious ＂Involution＂ of China grain production hinders the increasing of grain yield.The aging of agricultural labor force can reduce the labor input and promote the scale and mechanization of grain production, and to promote grain production by increasing yield and planting area. Meanwhile, China＇ s grain production is still dependent on input and capital investment. It＇ s not sustainable without improving the knowledge of agriculture labor in the long run.All findings suggest that improving human capital of agricultural labor force, fostering new agricultural entities for realizing the moderate scale management could help the increasing of grain production.