基于系统动力学的植物品种权资本化运营风险研究

Capitalization Operational Risk of Plant Variety Rights Based on System Dynamics

植物品种权资本化运营是实现品种权价值的有效路径，是各种资源要素的流动和重组，也是高风险与高收益的相伴过程。因而对品种权资本化运营风险进行防范与管理是促进品种权资本化运营的重要保障。本文从识别植物品种权资本化运营风险影响因素出发,利用系统动力学的方法和原理对植物品种权资本化运营风险进行建模与分析，探讨各风险因素之间的因果关系以及各因素对整个植物品种权资本化运营风险系统的影响，并利用VensimPLE软件对其进行仿真。揭示植物品种权资本化运营风险熵值随时间的动态演化趋势，以期寻找优化植物品种权资本化运营风险管理的策略。

The capitalized operation of plant variety rights is an effective way to realize the value of variety rights.It is not only the flow and reorganization of various resource elements, but also the accompanying process of high risks and high returns.Therefore ,the research and management of the venture capitalization of the variety rights is an important guarantee for promoting the capitalization of the variety rights.This paper starts from the identification of the factors affecting the capitalized operation risk of plant variety rights, uses the methods and principles of system dynamics to model and analyze the capitalization operation risk of plant variety rights, and discusses the causal relationships between various risk factors and the associated impacts on the operating risk systems of the entire plant variety right capitalization. The, this study uses Vensim PLE software to simulate the effect to reveal the dynamic evolutionary trend of the risk entropy of the capitalized operation of plant variety rights over time, with a view to find strategies and recommendations for optimizing the risk management of capitalized operations of plant variety rights.