我国“以房养老”的潜在规模与特征——基于一个供给与需求相结合的模型

The Potential Scale and Features of Houses-for-Pension——A Model combining Supply and Demand

中国老年人房产价值高而平均流动性收入低,说明"以房养老"具有较大市场潜力。在我们建立的供给与需求结合的模型中,金融机构及老年人的最优决策意味着存在一个使得老年人效用最大化的最优房产抵押比例。根据模型结论以及CHARLS数据库的计算表明,家庭类型、年龄大小、户籍与居住地等因素都对老年人的房产抵押比例、每月年金支付额、每月年金支付额对流动性的比值存在影响。而房产升值率变化以及老年人偏好的改变对老年人所得每月年金支付额也存在温和的影响。该研究明确了"以房养老"潜在规模与重要性,并对引导金融机构推出"以房养老"业务具有重要的实际意义。

Property values usuallytake a large share in the total assets of the aged＇s in China while the average liquid income is low for them. This fact shows House-for-Pension has a great market potential. In our model which combined supply and demand,the optimal decisions of financial institution and the aged mean that there is an optimal mortgage ratio that maximizes the utility of the aged. According to the derivation process of this model,we use the CHARLS database to calculate the optimal mortgage ratio. The result shows that the factors such as family type,age,residence will have influenced on the ratio of mortgage,monthly annuity payment A and ratio R. And the change of the property appreciation rate,as well as the change of the aged＇s preference,has a mild effect on the monthly annuity payment.