北京香菇批发价格波动分析及展望

Shiitake Mushroom Wholesale Price Fluctuation in Beijing and Its Prospect

香菇是中国重要的园艺产品之一,其价格波动对生产者的种植积极性及收益产生直接影响。利用Censusx-12季节调整、HP滤波方法分析2014—2017年北京香菇价格波动规律发现,北京香菇价格总体呈现下降趋势,2017年底显现回升迹象,价格极值出现具有规律性,总体上两年一个波动周期,但也存在一定的不规则变化。受产品及原材料供求以及替代品价格变化等多种因素影响,未来北京香菇价格短期内仍将延续缓慢下降趋势。

Shiitake mushroom is one of the important horticultural products in China, whose price fluctuation has direct impact on the producers＇ planting enthusiasm and income. Using Censusx-12 seasonal adjustment and HP filtering method to study the price fluctuation rule of shiitake mushroom in Beijing from2014 to 2017, the authors found the price of shiitake mushroom generally presented downward trend showing a sign of recovery by the end of 2017, and the price extremum of shiitake mushroom was regularly emerged with a general fluctuation cycle of two years, but there were also some irregular changes in the fluctuation of shiitake mushroom price. In the future, the shiitake mushroom price will decrease slowly in the short term affected by the supply and demand of products and raw materials and the price change of substitutes.