技术创新、产业结构调整与就业的空间特征研究——基于空间异质性和空间相关性的实证分析

The Impact of Technological Innovation and Industrial Structure on Employment——Based on Threshold Effect and Spatial Effect

基于2000—2015年中国内地除西藏以外的30个省份面板数据,从空间异质性和空间相关性两个角度出发,采用面板门槛模型和空间计量模型对技术创新、产业结构调整和就业的关系进行了实证分析。结果显示:技术创新、产业结构调整与就业之间均存在显著的门槛效应;从全国范围来看,技术创新对就业的影响存在显著的U形关系,而产业结构对就业具有促进作用;分区域来看,技术创新抑制了中西部地区的就业,而产业结构调整对中西部地区的就业影响存在U形特征,东部地区与全国样本回归结果基本一致;在空间相关性的影响下,产业结构调整对就业的空间效应表现为促进作用,而技术创新对就业的空间效应表现为抑制作用。

Based on panel data of 30 provinces except Tibet in China from 2000 to 2015,this article aims to discuss the relationships between technological innovation,industrial structure and employment by using threshold model and spatial panel Durbin model. The results show as follows： technological innovation and industrial structure have a significant threshold effect on employment. Nationwide,the impact of technological innovation on employment has a U-shaped relationship,and industrial structure has a positive impact on employment. However,technological innovation inhibits the employment in the central and western regions,and the impact of industrial structure on the employment takes on a U-shaped feature in the central and western regions. The result of eastern regions is the same as that of the whole country. Under the influence of geographical factor,the spatial effect of industrial structure on employment is positive,and the spatial effect of technological innovation on employment is negative.