潜在流动性约束与城镇家庭消费

Latent Liquidity Constraints and Urban Household Consumption

收入不平等与家庭消费的关系与信贷约束程度以及家庭社会地位偏好有关。住房是典型的地位性商品,当收入差距扩大时,人们为了维持或提高现有的相对地位会努力改善居住条件,住房攀比最终会导致全社会住房面积标准提高和房价上涨。在信贷缺乏的环境中,购房标准提高和房价上涨意味着家庭未来遭遇流动性约束的风险加大,为此,家庭在增加购房预算的同时会抑制日常消费。本文利用2010年、2012年和2014年的微观跟踪调查数据进行的实证分析表明:(1)周围人群的住房面积的扩大,会促使家庭选择购买更大的房子。并且,攀比效应对住房需求的刺激作用明显大于房价上涨对住房需求的抑制作用。(2)家庭平均住房面积扩大和房价上涨都与收入不平等引发的住房攀比有关。(3)收入不平等对城镇家庭消费皆有拉动作用和抑制作用。(4)潜在流动性约束对家庭消费的抑制作用与家庭地位等级的高低有关。

Using the micro-tracking data of CFPS in 2010,2012 and 2014,we find that the relation between income inequality and household consumption is associated with credit constraints and family social status preferences. Housing comparisons will eventually make housing standards higher and increase house prices,and this implies that the future of the family is at greater risk of liquidity constraints. Therefore,increasing housing budget may have inhibitory effect on daily consumption in urban household expenditure： 1）The increase of the housing size of the surrounding groups will make the households choose and buy even bigger houses. Also,the comparison effect on the stimulating function for housing demand is obviously greater than that on the restrictive function for housing demand drove by housing price rise. 2） Both the increase of average housing size and the rise of housing prices are all related with housing comparison incurred by income inequality. 3） Income inequality is of both driving and restrictive functions for urban households consumption.4） Latent liquidity constraints on the restrictive function for households consumption relate to the rank of households status.